Writing at The Nation, Ari Melber has a piece that looks at the big, bold signs which say that despite polling at the top of the Republican field, Herman Cain isn't actually running a real presidential campaign. The short version is:
- Cain hasn't had a presence in Iowa
- Cain doesn't have a noticeable field program in any other state, either
- Cain is effectively running "the World's Most Expensive Book Tour," using his candidacy to promote his book, not the other way around
- Cain is still giving paid speeches
This is really a question of who or what makes people vote for a candidate. Conventional Wisdom says that the most effective field operations can add at most about 3% to a politician's vote total. That's a pretty huge amount and field operations are the bread and butter of successful primary efforts.
While Cain may not be running a traditional field campaign, he's spent a ton of time doing TV interviews and his campaign has bought a lot of online ads, especially around their response to the alleged incidents of sexual harassment. Cain may be able to talk to voters through the media and internet, without having representatives in the field to make the case for him to voters in person. The only thing which says that this won't work is history.
I agree with Melber that there are real questions to how Cain is running his campaign, questions which fundamentally challenge the seriousness of his campaign. But anyone who can sit at the top of the polls despite more people accusing him of sexual harassment than supported Tim Pawlenty for President is surely going to demand serious treatment for as long as he polls well. That might eventually evolve into Cain creating a field infrastructure, focusing solely on running for President, and caring more about editorial board meetings than book reviews. But even if it doesn't, the only actual way to assess whether Cain's methods are signs of a lack of commitment to running for President will be when Republican voters go to caucus and vote in early 2012.