Via Steve Benen and Jon Terbush at TPM, a recent WaPo/ABC poll shows that Sarah Palin's favorablilty numbers are falling among Republicans, while her unfavorables are on the rise in the same cohort. Here's the splits on Palin and three other national Republicans:
1. Mike Huckabee -- 61% favorable, 18% unfavorableTerbush writes:
2. Mitt Romney -- 60% favorable, 21% unfavorable
3. Sarah Palin -- 58% favorable, 37% unfavorable
4. Newt Gingrich -- 55% favorable, 26% unfavorable
For a while, it seemed as if Palin's biggest obstacle to a run for the presidency would be the general election. But now, it looks like the GOP primary may be a big challenge in itself.I think that's probably right, but misses the point. Nothing we've seen from Palin suggests she's about to catch fire with the GOP base, especially the non-Tea Party GOP base. But her favorable number is still essentially on par with Huckabee, Romney and Gingrich. The only thing out of whack is her unfavorability. This is directly connected to having 95% of Republican voters having an opinion of her, compared to 79% for Huckabee, 81% for Romney and Gingrich. People have formed opinions about Palin. For many Republicans, they are at a point where they will likely just process whatever new information they get about Palin without forming a new opinion. On the other hand, her main opponents have to convince a lot more voters one way or the other that they are likable and good candidates.
Benen goes in a similar direction with his analysis:
It may be counterintuitive, but I actually think this is good news for Palin. She's done nothing but bring shame and embarrassment to herself on a nearly daily basis for years, and she's likely dropped about as far as she can with the GOP. And at this point, she still enjoys favorable ratings from a clear majority of Republican voters.While I hesitate to move towards a 2012 version of the meme, "Obviously this is good news for Rudy Giuliani," I don't know that any Republican who currently has a favorable view of Palin is going to be swayed away from it. It could literally be in one ear, out the other for these people when it comes to learning new, negative things about Palin.
What these numbers really suggest to me is that Palin has a real opportunity to start campaigning and start defining her opponents negatively before their campaigns can do it. She has to reach out to the fifth of Republicans who don't have a stated opinion on Huckabee, Romney and Gingrich and define them for the voters. Clearly while there is little place for her to move in either direction, her opponents have four times as much space to move. That could very well be a definitive advantage for Palin.
The one caveat I'll place on my analysis is that the WaPo/ABC poll hasn't polled likely Republican voters in about a year. The model they used in October, 2010 was registered voters and Palin performed better. So the trend line is much steeper from October 2010 to now than March 2010 to now. So yes, Palin is trending down. The question is, has she hit her floor among Republican primary voters or is there still room to fall? As an educated person who hopes for the best in America, I hope she hasn't hit the bottom yet. But I'm not so optimistic about Republican primary voters, especially in a primary that will be heavily influenced by the Tea Party.