Yesterday it went from rumor to certainty that America's ambassador to China, Jon Huntsman, is resigning his post to run for the Republican presidential nomination.
I'm sure Huntsman sees himself as something of a Henry Cabot Lodge-type figure. Lodge, a Republican and former senator, was ambassador to Vietnam in the critical years of 1963 and 1964. During that time, he was repeatedly floated as a presidential candidate by Republican insiders, who went so as to help Lodge win the New Hampshire primary while he was still stationed and serving in Vietnam. This win brought Lodge more fully into the race, though he ended up not fairing well, with Barry Goldwater going on to win the nomination with a boatload of crazy.
The analogy between Lodge and Huntsman doesn't hold up much past Huntsman's ego - seeking out the space to make himself a candidate by resigning his position in service of the US government. There is, however, a more likely parallel in the dynamic with the two. Lodge was pushed by insiders and operatives who saw an opening for him in the 1964 field. Huntsman, who has been overseas for the last two years and not a regular figure in Republican political conversations, is likewise being spurred by people who are advising him that a Mormon foreign policy wonk who's moderate on some key social issues is just what the doctor ordered. While that may be nice in the sane world some professional Republicans find themselves, I don't know that it has any bearing on the Tea Party clown house Huntsman will be returning to engage. Like Mitt Romney, Huntsman may have to evolve his publicly held views on civil unions and global warming to be palatable to the Tea Party set.
Dave Weigel addresses the electability issue - which is really the question of whether Huntsman is appealing to Republican primary voters - as follows:
When do we start seeing polls that show Huntsman ahead of Barack Obama in 2012 trial heats? That's when we see Huntsman overcoming his problems with the GOP base.This isn't as circular as it sounds. Huntsman has to find ways to get support from the GOP base prior to overcoming ahead of Obama. But the catch is, for him to get the level of support he needs from the base, he will have to move towards positions that turn off independent voters. So, as I say to all GOP hopefuls who depend on Tea Party activists to win the nomination, good luck with that.
...Adding, the thing that I love most this morning is that Politico 2012 has a special sidebar widget for Herman Cain, but not Jon Huntsman.